AAMC's annual physician workforce projections report notes the significant impact physician retirements will have on the nation's physician workforce shortage. The projections make it clear that any factor leading physicians to retire early will significantly exacerbate an already worrying shortage. Now we have COVID, and it may be pushing physician retirements in two different directions: 1) the extra stress of working during a pandemic could lead physicians to retire earlier than they planned; but 2) the economic downturn could make retirement less feasible and might even lead physicians to postpone their retirement. The considerations here are complicated, of course, and include how long the pandemic lasts and how bad the economy gets, as well as myriad other factors that can and do affect retirement decisions. Nonetheless, as we begin to update our physician supply and demand projections for the COVID era, I have to ask: Which way will physician retirement go?------------------------------
Michael Dill
Director, Workforce Studies
Association of American Medical Colleges
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